What characterizes a cyclical pattern in time series?

A cyclical pattern in time series is characterized by an alternating sequence around a trend that lasts more than one year. This means that the cyclical movements reflect longer-term fluctuations that occur in a recurring manner over extended periods, typically linked to economic or business cycles. These fluctuations can rise and fall in a predictable way, but unlike seasonal patterns, which are shorter and have a fixed duration (often less than a year), cyclical patterns operate over longer timeframes.

In essence, recognizing a cyclical pattern involves identifying how data points move relative to a long-term trend, with significant oscillations that can span multiple years. This contrasts sharply with brief changes, trends that may solely move in one direction, or random fluctuations that lack systematic recurrence, thereby emphasizing the nature of cyclical changes as part of broader economic contexts.